Interest rates moved higher in September
The 10-year Treasury yield, which is the interest rate the U.S. government pays to borrow for ten years, rose above 5.1% in September, its highest level since 2007. Mortgage rates tend to follow that yield, and the report shows the 30-year fixed rate near 7.25%, the highest in 28 months. The Federal Reserve also raised its benchmark rate by 0.25 percentage points, its first increase in three years.
Answer. Mortgage rates tend to follow the 10-year Treasury yield, which rose to 5.13% in September, its highest level since 2007. The daily 30-year fixed rate followed to about 7.25%, the highest in 28 months, and Freddie Mac's weekly average was 7.03% on September 24. The Federal Reserve also raised its benchmark rate by 0.25 percentage points. What pushed yields up is covered in the Economy section below.
Back to the questions10-Year Interest Rate Pushes Higher
How to read it. The line is the 10-year Treasury yield over time. For example, it was 1.21% in mid-2021 and reached 5.13% in September 2026.
Source: U.S. Treasury 10-year yield, charted by Compass International Holdings. Chart: Compass International Holdings, used with permission. Retrieved September 2026. Subject to change at any time.
View the data
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Mid-2021 (labeled) | 1.21% |
| Latest, Sept 2026 | 5.13% |
| Change | 3.92 percentage points |
Values as labeled on the Compass chart, September 2026.
30 Years of Mortgage History
How to read it. The line is the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate. Gray bands mark past downturns. For example, the rate bottomed at 2.65% during the pandemic and is now near 7.25%.
Legend: Gray bands = Dot-com recession, Global Financial Crisis (GFC), Covid boom.
Source: Freddie Mac, Mortgage News Daily, Compass. Chart: Compass International Holdings, used with permission. Retrieved September 2026. Subject to change at any time.
View the data
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| 2000 (labeled) | 8.64% |
| Pandemic low, 2021 | 2.65% |
| Latest, Sept 2026 (daily series) | 7.25% |
| Freddie Mac weekly, Sept 24, 2026 | 7.03% |
Values as labeled on the Compass chart, September 2026.
Markets Expect Continued Fed Hikes
How to read it. Solid blue steps are the actual federal funds rate, and the dotted purple line is what bond markets expect. For example, markets price the rate rising from 3.88% toward 4.31% by early 2027.
Legend: Blue = actual fed funds rate. Dotted purple = market-implied forecast.
Source: Federal Reserve, bond-market futures, charted by Compass International Holdings. Chart: Compass International Holdings, used with permission. Retrieved September 2026. Subject to change at any time.
View the data
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| July 2024 | 5.38% |
| Dec 2025 – Sept 2026 | 3.63% |
| After Sept 2026 hike | 3.88% |
| Market-implied path | 4.01% → 4.2% → 4.31% |
Values as labeled on the Compass chart, September 2026.
What pushed rates up
The report points to faster growth and firmer inflation. Services business activity posted its highest reading in three years, August added 162,000 jobs, first-time unemployment claims stayed low, and oil rose back above $100 a barrel. Inflation measures are running above the Federal Reserve's 2% goal, which puts upward pressure on rates.
Answer. Faster growth and firmer inflation. Services business activity reached 58.7 in September, its highest reading in three years; August added 162,000 jobs; first-time unemployment claims stayed low at 196,000; oil rose back above $100 a barrel; and inflation is running above the Federal Reserve's 2% goal, with CPI at 3.4% and PCE at 3.7%.
Back to the questionsThe Data That Drove Up Mortgage Rates
How to read it. Each bar is a monthly reading of services business activity. Above the dotted line at 50 means expansion. For example, September 2026 read 58.7, the highest in three years.
Legend: Orange bar = the one month below 50 (contraction).
Source: S&P Global US Services PMI, charted by Compass International Holdings. Chart: Compass International Holdings, used with permission. Retrieved September 2026. Subject to change at any time.
View the data
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| March 2026 | 49.8 |
| September 2026 | 58.7 |
| Expansion line | 50 |
Values as labeled on the Compass chart, September 2026.
Still-Too-High Inflation
How to read it. The two lines are yearly inflation rates. For example, the latest CPI is 3.4% and PCE is 3.7%, compared with a 2% target.
Legend: Blue = CPI. Purple = PCE.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI), Bureau of Economic Analysis (PCE). Chart: Compass International Holdings, used with permission. Retrieved September 2026. Subject to change at any time.
View the data
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| CPI, latest | 3.4% |
| PCE, latest | 3.7% |
| Fed target | 2% |
Values as labeled on the Compass chart, September 2026.
Oil is Back Over $100 / Barrel
How to read it. The shaded area is the daily price of a barrel of oil. For example, it climbed back above $100 in September 2026.
Source: Yahoo Finance, charted by Compass International Holdings. Chart: Compass International Holdings, used with permission. Retrieved September 2026. Subject to change at any time.
View the data
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Latest, Sept 2026 | Above $100 per barrel |
Values as labeled on the Compass chart, September 2026.
Strong August Jobs Growth
How to read it. Each bar is the number of jobs added (or lost) in a month, in thousands. For example, August 2026 added 162,000 jobs, and 2026 has averaged about 80,000 a month.
Legend: Blue = jobs added. Orange = jobs lost.
Source: BLS Non-Farm Payrolls, total jobs, seasonally adjusted. Chart: Compass International Holdings, used with permission. Retrieved September 2026. Subject to change at any time.
View the data
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| February 2026 | −156,000 |
| March 2026 | +214,000 |
| August 2026 | +162,000 |
| 2026 monthly average | about 80,000 |
Values as labeled on the Compass chart, September 2026.
Wealth Effect Helps Purchase Demand
How to read it. The line shows how much the S&P 500 stock index is up or down compared with a year earlier. For example, it was up 15.7% in September 2026.
Source: MarketWatch.com, index change vs. one year prior. Chart: Compass International Holdings, used with permission. Retrieved September 2026. Subject to change at any time.
View the data
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Latest, Sept 2026 | +15.7% vs. a year earlier |
Values as labeled on the Compass chart, September 2026.
Unemployment Signals Remain Very Low
How to read it. The line is the weekly count of first-time unemployment claims. For example, the latest reading is 196,000.
Source: U.S. Employment and Training Administration, initial claims, seasonally adjusted. Chart: Compass International Holdings, used with permission. Retrieved September 2026. Subject to change at any time.
View the data
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Latest, Sept 2026 | 196,000 |
Values as labeled on the Compass chart, September 2026.
Buyer activity cooled as rates rose
Pending sales, which are homes that went under contract, are running about 4% below last year over the past four weeks. The three weekly demand measures in the report (pending sales, mortgage purchase applications and Xactus mortgage-intent data) all turned down as rates jumped. The report shows the slowdown concentrated in the lower price ranges, while higher-priced segments are still ahead of 2025.
Answer. Yes, but fewer than last year. Pending sales over the last four weeks ran about 4% below the same weeks of 2025, and all three weekly demand measures in the report turned down as rates rose. The slowdown is concentrated in the lowest price ranges, while higher-priced segments still have more sales than a year ago.
Back to the questionsPending Sales Growth Has Slowed
How to read it. Each line is weekly homes going under contract for one year. For example, 2026 (blue) is averaging 74,000 a week, about 4% fewer than 2025 (purple).
Legend: Blue = 2026. Purple = 2025. Gray = 2022.
Source: Altos Research, Compass. Weekly pending sales, single family + condo, 4-week rolling average. Chart: Compass International Holdings, used with permission. Retrieved September 2026. Subject to change at any time.
View the data
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026, latest 4-week average | 74,000 per week |
| Change vs. 2025 | −4% |
Values as labeled on the Compass chart, September 2026.
Home Sales by Price Segment
How to read it. Each line is one quarter of the market by price, compared with a year earlier. Above 0% means more sales than last year. For example, the bottom segment (yellow) is below 0% while the top segment (blue) is above it.
Legend: Blue = top 25% by price. Purple = upper. Orange = lower. Yellow = bottom 25%.
Source: Compass, Altos Research. Weekly pending sales, 13-week rolling average, vs. same week a year prior. Chart: Compass International Holdings, used with permission. Retrieved September 2026. Subject to change at any time.
View the data
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Top segment | Above last year |
| Upper and lower segments | Near last year |
| Bottom segment | Below last year |
Values as labeled on the Compass chart, September 2026.
Measuring the Latest Demand Shifts
How to read it. Each line compares a weekly demand measure with a year earlier. The gray area means less demand than last year. For example, all three lines ended September in the gray.
Legend: Orange = Altos pendings. Blue = MBA purchase apps. Purple = Xactus mortgage intent.
Source: Compass, Altos Research, Mortgage Bankers Association, Xactus. Xactus includes refinance and purchase activity. Chart: Compass International Holdings, used with permission. Retrieved September 2026. Subject to change at any time.
View the data
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Altos pending sales | Below last year |
| MBA purchase applications | Below last year |
| Xactus mortgage intent | Below last year |
Values as labeled on the Compass chart, September 2026.
Purchase Mortgage Applications
How to read it. Each line is an index of mortgage applications to buy a home, one line per year. For example, 2026 (blue) has dropped below 2025 (purple) since late summer.
Legend: Blue = 2026. Purple = 2025. Orange = 2024. Yellow = 2023. Gray = 2022.
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association Purchase Index, Compass. 13-week rolling average. Chart: Compass International Holdings, used with permission. Retrieved September 2026. Subject to change at any time.
View the data
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026 vs. 2025 | Below since about September |
Values as labeled on the Compass chart, September 2026.
NAR Existing Home Sales
How to read it. The line is the yearly pace of existing-home sales. For example, August 2026 came in at 3.98 million.
Source: National Association of Realtors, seasonally adjusted annual rate. Gray areas are recessions. Chart: Compass International Holdings, used with permission. Retrieved September 2026. Subject to change at any time.
View the data
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| August 2026 | 3.98 million (annual pace) |
Values as labeled on the Compass chart, September 2026.
More homes for sale, prices holding
The number of homes for sale nationally is about 3% higher than last year and about 5% below 2019, and the report now expects inventory to grow 2% to 5% this year. Conditions vary widely by state. Massachusetts is in the group where demand is highest compared with supply. Nationally, home prices were up 1.5% from a year earlier as of June 2026, and the median list price has stayed in a narrow band for four years.
Answer. Yes on both. About 1.12 million homes are for sale nationally, about 3% more than last year and about 5% fewer than in 2019. National home prices were up 1.5% in June 2026 from a year earlier, and the median list price has stayed in a narrow band for four years. Massachusetts remains among the states where demand is highest compared with supply.
Back to the questionsWhere Supply Most Exceeds Demand
How to read it. Each state is shaded relative to the others on the Altos Market Action Index. Blue means demand is higher compared with supply, and orange means supply is higher. For example, Massachusetts is one of the darkest blue states.
Legend: Orange = more supply vs. demand. Blue = more demand vs. supply.
Source: Altos Research, Compass. Active inventory, single family + condo, 9/11/26 vs. 9/13/19. Chart: Compass International Holdings, used with permission. Retrieved September 2026. Subject to change at any time.
View the data
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Blue states | 25 (tighter markets) |
| Orange states | 25 (more supply vs. demand) |
| Massachusetts | Among the tightest |
Values as labeled on the Compass chart, September 2026.
Inventory Slowly Returns to "Normal"
How to read it. The line is the total number of homes for sale nationally. The gray band is the typical 2010s range. For example, inventory fell to 305,720 in 2022 and is now 1,123,732.
Legend: Gray band = 2010s normal range.
Source: Altos Research, Compass. Total inventory, single family + condo. Chart: Compass International Holdings, used with permission. Retrieved September 2026. Subject to change at any time.
View the data
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| 2015 | 1,469,715 |
| 2022 low | 305,720 |
| Latest, Sept 2026 | 1,123,732 |
| vs. last year / 2019 / 2015 | +3% / −5% / −20% |
Values as labeled on the Compass chart, September 2026.
Inventory Forecast
How to read it. Each line is single-family inventory for one year, and dotted lines are projections. For example, 2026 (blue) is running above 2025 (purple) and below 2019 (gray).
Legend: Blue = 2026 (dotted = projected). Purple = 2025. Orange = 2024. Gray = 2019.
Source: Altos Research, Compass. Single-family inventory history and 2026 forecast. Chart: Compass International Holdings, used with permission. Retrieved September 2026. Subject to change at any time.
View the data
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026 forecast | +2% to +5% for the year |
Values as labeled on the Compass chart, September 2026.
Sales Price Growth Stays Positive
How to read it. Each small chart is one city's yearly home price change. Gray means prices are below last year. For example, Boston is above 0%.
Legend: Blue = cities with prices up vs. last year. Purple = cities with prices down. Orange = national.
Source: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, June 2026 vs. June 2025. Chart: Compass International Holdings, used with permission. Retrieved September 2026. Subject to change at any time.
View the data
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| National | +1.5% vs. last year |
| Cities below last year | 7 of 20 |
| Chicago | +6.9% |
| Las Vegas, Seattle | −1.8% |
| Boston | Above last year |
Values as labeled on the Compass chart, September 2026.
List Prices Have Not Increased for 4 Years
How to read it. Each line is the median asking price for one year. For example, 2026 (blue) sits near $446,000, close to 2023–2025.
Legend: Blue = 2026. Purple = 2025. Orange = 2024. Yellow = 2023. Gray = 2022.
Source: Altos Research, Compass. Median price of active single-family listings, 13-week rolling average. Chart: Compass International Holdings, used with permission. Retrieved September 2026. Subject to change at any time.
View the data
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Latest, Sept 2026 | $446,000 |
Values as labeled on the Compass chart, September 2026.
New Home Construction Slowdown
How to read it. Each panel is one stage of new single-family building, in thousands of homes per year. For example, completions dropped to 816,000.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Single-family homes (000s), seasonally adjusted. Chart: Compass International Holdings, used with permission. Retrieved September 2026. Subject to change at any time.
View the data
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Permits | 880,000 |
| Starts | 918,000 |
| Under construction | 589,000 |
| Completed | 816,000 |
Values as labeled on the Compass chart, September 2026.
Homeowners remain on solid footing
The report notes this is not a distressed market. The share of mortgages 90 or more days late is about 1%, lower than credit cards and auto loans, and foreclosures remain low by historical standards.
Answer. Healthy overall. About 1% of mortgages are 90 or more days late, compared with 5.5% of auto loans and 12.9% of credit card balances. In Q2 2026, 55,200 homeowners newly entered foreclosure, compared with 566,200 at the 2009 peak.
Back to the questionsMortgage Delinquency is Very Low
How to read it. Each line is the share of loans 90+ days late. For example, mortgages are at 1% while credit cards are at 12.9%.
Legend: Blue = mortgage. Gray = all. Purple = auto. Orange = credit card.
Source: NY Fed Household Debt and Credit Report. Chart: Compass International Holdings, used with permission. Retrieved September 2026. Subject to change at any time.
View the data
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Mortgage | 1% |
| All debt | 3.3% |
| Auto | 5.5% |
| Credit card | 12.9% |
Values as labeled on the Compass chart, September 2026.
Very Few Foreclosures in 2026
How to read it. Each bar is the number of homeowners newly in foreclosure in a quarter. For example, Q2 2026 had 55,200, compared with 566,200 at the 2009 peak.
Source: NY Fed. Homeowners newly in foreclosure, per quarter. Chart: Compass International Holdings, used with permission. Retrieved September 2026. Subject to change at any time.
View the data
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| 2009 peak | 566,200 |
| 2021 low | 8,100 |
| Q2 2026 | 55,200 |
Values as labeled on the Compass chart, September 2026.